Lifepro, a performance-focused wellness brand with a strong presence across Shopify and Amazon, partnered with WorkMagic to establish a more accurate understanding of Meta’s true impact ahead of BFCM. By measuring incrementality and quantifying Amazon’s previously unmeasured halo effect, the team gained a trusted baseline — enabling confident budget and campaign planning for their most important sales period of the year.
“Going into BFCM, we wanted certainty. Measuring Meta's performance and understanding its Amazon halo effect gave us the confidence to scale spend knowing exactly what efficiency trade-offs to expect.”
About Lifepro
Lifepro is a wellness and fitness brand focused on helping customers improve mobility, recovery, and physical performance through accessible, high-quality products. With a strong direct-to-consumer business and Amazon presence, Lifepro operates as a true omnichannel brand — where marketing-driven demand frequently converts across multiple sales environments.
As the brand scaled, understanding how advertising influenced both DTC and marketplace performance became increasingly important for forecasting demand, setting budgets, and maintaining efficient growth.
Meta performance needed to be validated under peak-demand conditions
As Lifepro prepared for BFCM, the team wanted to ensure they had a trustworthy view of Meta performance before committing to significantly larger seasonal budgets.
To do this, the team ran multiple Meta lift tests, including tests timed around high-volume sales periods such as Amazon Prime Day, with a clear objective: establish a reliable performance baseline under real demand pressure.
The team suspected that Meta was driving significant demand beyond Shopify, including halo effects on Amazon that were missed in reporting by traditional attribution.
Without visibility into how Meta influenced Amazon sales, ROAS and iCPA appeared weaker than reality. This created uncertainty around how aggressively Meta could be scaled during peak periods — precisely when spend decisions carried the most upside and risk.
Going into the hectic BFCM period, Lifepro needed certainty and clarity.
Incrementality-calibrated MMM to plan BFCM spend with confidence
Lifepro partnered with WorkMagic to measure Meta’s true incremental contribution across both Shopify and Amazon using a geo-based pause-to-measure lift test.
This approach allowed the team to:
Quantify incremental orders driven by Meta on Shopify
Measure downstream Amazon conversions influenced by Meta
Recalculate core efficiency metrics with halo included
Beyond measurement, WorkMagi's incrementality-calibrated MMM and Budget Optimizer, allowed it to plot a response curve that showed how Meta efficiency would change as spend increased.
The output showed that the brand was performing at close to peak efficiency, with Meta's ROAS coming in at over 4.0x. There was clear headroom to increase spend and maximize total sales, even if ROAS compressed slightly from peak test levels.
The team was ready to put the model to use — not just theoretically, but operationally. From the predictions, the team adjusted Meta budgets and set realistic efficiency expectations for BFCM.
Lifepro scaled BFCM spend by 200%, with actual ROAS landing within ~2.2% of the predicted outcome
A majority of Meta’s impact occurred off DTC
The lift test confirmed what the Lifepro team had long suspected: Meta was driving substantial downstream demand that then converted on Amazon. In fact, 57.9% of all incremental orders attributed to Meta occurred on Amazon, fundamentally reframing how the channel’s value should be evaluated.
While Meta was influencing on-site conversions (some 28.2% of Shopify conversions were Meta-sourced) — it was also creating demand that materialized across marketplaces.
The halo effect prompted a recalculation in efficiency metrics
With a more accurate understanding of the size of Meta's halo effect, a recalculation in efficiency and performance was due.
When Amazon halo effects were incorporated into performance measurement, Meta-driven orders increased by 181%, while iCPA improved by 64.5%.
This reset replaced an incomplete picture driven by traditional attribution methods with an omnichannel baseline that finance and growth teams could rely on.
Peak-season scaling validated the MMM forecast
With incrementality results and MMM guidance in hand, Lifepro entered BFCM with confidence in how Meta would perform at higher spend levels.
During the peak season, the team increased Meta spend by ~200% versus pre-test levels. While WorkMagic's incrementality-calibrated MMM model had predicted a drop in efficiency with this increased level of spend, the team were well-prepared for that outcome, and were willing to trade efficiency for higher sales numbers during one of the most profitable sales periods of the year.
When the results rolled in, the WorkMagic platform had accurately predicted the final ROAS to within ~2.2% , while delivering the confidence the team had needed to scale spend.
Rather than scaling blindly, Lifepro scaled with intent — trading a known amount of efficiency for materially higher sales volume.
From Measurement to Performance
For Lifepro, incrementality testing did more than recalibrate Meta performance — it created a shared foundation for decision-making across growth and finance.
By quantifying Amazon halo effects and forecasting performance at scale, the team transformed Meta from a cautiously budgeted channel into a confidently scaled growth lever. What began as a pre-BFCM validation exercise became a repeatable framework for planning future peak periods with precision.
Want to plan peak-season budgets with confidence?
Book a demo with WorkMagic to see how incrementality-calibrated MMM can guide smarter growth.